Beyond Assertion
Extraordinary statements deserve scrutiny, especially when they carry significant consequences. A claim that AGI has arrived requires a definition and evidence. A claim that AI could cause human extinction by the end of the decade requires a basis and evidence. A call for someone to step down requires a basis and evidence. In each case, the question should not be who makes the claim, but what supports it. A claim is not strengthened merely by the confidence with which it is stated. A label is not evidence, and an accusation is not a finding. Too often, we substitute assertion for justification. But the more consequential the statement, the more important the basis.
